Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided the president leverage to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with Israel since his first term, including his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
Putin may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.
The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
However the president of Ukraine later commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.